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Introduction
According to the OECD, the UK is likely to be one of the developed
economies hardest hit by the pandemic, with a forecast decline
in GDP of 11.5%, exceeding losses in France, Italy, Spain, and
Germany. Laurence Boone, Chief Economist of the OECD, also
stated that a scenario involving a second lockdown would result in
the decline growing to 14%. Boone was quoted as saying, “These
scenarios are by no means exhaustive, but they help frame the field
of possibilities and sharpen policies to walk such uncharted grounds.
Both scenarios are sobering, as economic activity does not and
cannot return to normal under these circumstances. By the end of
2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession
over the last 100 years outside of wartime, with dire and long-lasting
consequences for people, firms and governments.”
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